CIER raises Taiwan's economic forecast for 2014

By in

The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER) has positively revised its forecast for Taiwan’s economic growth in 2014 because of continued strength in the country’s private consumption and investment.

The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER) has positively revised its forecast for Taiwan’s economic growth in 2014 because of continued strength in the country’s private consumption and investment.

The Taipei-based think tank predicted on Tuesday that Taiwan’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 3.46% in 2014, up 0.31 percentage points from its previous projection of 3.15% in July. The CIER also estimated Taiwan’s 2015 GDP growth at 3.53% after a mild recovery in the domestic economy.

The experts are slightly more upbeat about Taiwan’s growth this year than the official Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics. “We found that the recovery of many local sectors have outperformed our expectations since the first half of this year,’ CIER President Wu Chung-shu told a press briefing. ‘Despite a slowdown in macroeconomic conditions, Taiwan still has performed well in the third quarter and is expected to maintain a growth rate of above 3% in the fourth quarter.’

According to the CIER’s estimates, Taiwan’s economy grew 3.76% from July to September and will grow 3.13% towards the year end. However uncertainties remain in the long term, and slowing economic activity in emerging markets such as China is likely to drag down worldwide economic growth. As well, China’s government has asked Chinese companies to shift at least 30% of their orders to domestic suppliers in recent years, leading to a decline in orders for intermediate goods from Taiwan such as semiconductors and electronics components.